The potential for Michelle Obama to replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee has garnered attention, yet recent polls indicate that even with her on the ticket, Donald Trump would still hold an edge. The debate over Biden's candidacy intensified after his lackluster performance in the recent debate against Trump, leading to increased calls for the 81-year-old president to step aside.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has provisions that allow for the selection of a new candidate if the sitting president withdraws before the formal nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August. This has led to speculation about potential replacements, with former First Lady Michelle Obama being a prominent name among those suggested.

Betting odds reflect Michelle Obama’s standing as a possible candidate. According to Oddschecker, her odds of becoming the Democratic nominee are +1650, which translates to a significant, albeit long-shot, possibility. By comparison, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s odds are +1150, and Vice President Kamala Harris stands at +3300.

Despite the excitement surrounding the idea of Michelle Obama entering the race, a poll conducted by the Daily Mail and J.L. Partners in March showed that she would not be able to surpass Trump in a head-to-head matchup. In this poll of 1,000 likely voters, Trump led with 47% of the votes, while Michelle Obama garnered 44%.

This sentiment was echoed by James Johnson of J.L. Partners, who remarked, “It was never very realistic, but this poll puts paid to the idea she can be any kind of saving force for the Democrats.”

Similarly, other potential replacements like Newsom and Harris have not fared better in polling against Trump. Data for Progress conducted a post-debate poll that also showed Trump leading Newsom by a narrow margin of 47% to 44%. Harris, who has been perceived as a "work in progress" by some within her party, also trailed Trump in the polls, with Trump receiving 48% to Harris’s 45%.

Despite the ongoing debates and speculation, Democratic leaders have no immediate plans to replace Biden. The current stance, as reported by Reuters, is to continue supporting Biden’s re-election campaign, despite the mounting concerns about his age and performance.

Michelle Obama herself has consistently dismissed the idea of running for president. In a statement to NBC News, her office reiterated, “As former First Lady Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president. Mrs. Obama supports President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ re-election campaign.” In her 2023 interview with Oprah Winfrey, she also mentioned that politics was “not in [her] soul.”

The potential for a change in the Democratic ticket remains a subject of debate. The DNC's official procedures allow for a replacement if necessary, but this would require Biden to withdraw, which he has shown no intention of doing. As such, discussions about potential replacements like Newsom, Harris, or Michelle Obama are speculative.

Gavin Newsom, in particular, has seen his profile rise as one of Biden's top surrogates, despite the challenges he faces in California with issues like crime and homelessness. His odds have increased to +1150, yet he, too, would face an uphill battle against Trump, as indicated by current polling.

Other potential candidates, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, also trail behind Trump in hypothetical matchups. Whitmer’s odds are +3300, while Booker’s are +40000.