A former MI6 spy, Christopher Steele, who led the agency's Russia desk from 2006 to 2009, has predicted the end of Vladimir Putin's 20-year reign within the next year. Steele has urged the West to brace for a "post-Putin era" and the potential consequences that could arise from various succession scenarios.

Steele's prediction comes in the wake of the Wagner rebellion and the disastrous commencement of the Ukraine war, both of which have raised questions about Putin's once unshakeable control over Russia. Steele suggests that Putin's grip on power has significantly weakened, and he outlines two potential outcomes that could lead to Putin's exit — assassination by internal rebels or an external plot. Both scenarios could result in widespread bloodshed, which Steele describes as the worst-case scenario for the West, where "all bets would be off."

While a peaceful transition involving Putin stepping down voluntarily at the next election in March 2024 remains a possibility, Steele believes that a violent move to kill or topple him is the most likely scenario. The implications of such a power shift would have profound consequences for Russia and the international community.

"A move is made violently, if necessary, to kill or topple Putin in favor of another securocrat or regime oligarch," Steele told Sky News. "But [it will be] one who has distanced themselves from the war and is prepared to negotiate on ending it genuinely with the West."

Steele also suggests that Putin's health may be failing, with credible sources indicating he has been ill for a significant period. Kremlin insiders have already begun positioning themselves as potential successors. Steele identifies FSB director Alexander Bortnikov as one of the frontrunners, citing his powerful position within Putin's inner circle. Bortnikov, a former KGB officer, has been at the helm of Russia's FSB since 2008, often described as a "state within the state."

Another potential successor Steele highlighted is Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of Tula Oblast. Seen as a rising star, Dyumin possesses the necessary profile to assume Putin's mantle. Oligarch Igor Sechin and former prime minister Viktor Zubkov are also named as possible contenders.

The outcome of Putin's departure and the subsequent leadership transition will have wide-ranging implications, especially for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. If Putin chooses to support Patrushev or Dyumin as his successor, experts predict little to no change in the current state of affairs.