The assassination of Vladimir Putin could potentially lead to a chaotic breakup of Russia into several smaller "nuclear mini-states," according to a former CIA analyst.
As Putin continues to struggle with seizing Ukraine more than 14 months after the initial invasion in February 2022, Paul Goble, an ex-CIA analyst, has shared a concerning prediction that Russia might undergo a "dramatic change" if the Russian leader is removed from power.
Goble revealed that numerous Russian insiders are open to the idea of a splintered state and the end of the current Russian Federation. "People are now much more open to the possibility that the Russian Federation might not be able to remain in one piece," he told The Sun. "What we're likely to see is something different than the coming apart of the great empires."
Goble envisions a "kaleidoscopic" and chaotic situation, constantly changing, where what is seen one year won't be the same after two years. He further warned that the smaller fragmented states resulting from the possible collapse of the Russian Federation might obtain nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.
"I suspect that there could be a lot more people with nuclear weapons than anybody is talking about," he said.
This comes after Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate Putin with a kamikaze drone last week. The drone, allegedly carrying 17kg of explosives, crashed just outside Moscow as the 70-year-old Russian leader was preparing to visit an industrial park in Rudnevo, a small hamlet less than 40 miles from the Russian capital.
Goble suggested that Putin's own officials might also be seeking to eliminate him due to the disastrous consequences of the invasion. "The most likely situation is that Putin is killed by people who realize he's destroying the country," Goble told The Sun.
Since the invasion of Ukraine began over 14 months ago, Russia has reportedly lost more than $18 billion and 200,000 troops.